BETTING ON CLIMATE CHANGE: A BET WE BETTER NOT LOSE

Paul Sabin, The Bet: Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our Gamble over Earth's Future (New Haven & London: Yale U. Press, 2013) ("Climate change, to the best of our scientific knowledge, is happening, and much of the recent global warming that we have seen appears caused by human actions. And climate change is a significant problem that threatens heavy economic and social costs. The world that humans are creating--with an increased likelihood of more intense storms, prolonged droughts, and profound changes to ecological systems--is not likely to being changes that people will want These are some of the vital insights of environmental scientists like Paul Ehrlich. At the same time, predictions that 'billions of us will die' by the end of the century as a result of climate change or that civilization will collapse reenact the least helpful elements of Ehrlich-style environmentalism." "What often gets lost in the climate debate are the lessons of the clash between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon. There is a serious and significant discussion to be had over what policy actions to take, and when. How much will the impacts of climate change cost, and how urgent is the need for immediate action? There are two dramatically different versions of the future. Should we count on technological innovation and economic growth to help societies meet this new challenge and adapt to change? Or must we cut emissions immediately and transform our societies in a dramatic way? The competing viewpoints echo positions held by Ehrlich and Simon. Both tend to exaggerate the consequences of their oppoents' position: how expensive and disruptive it would be to shift away from fossil fuels, on the one hand, and whether it would be possible for humanity to adapt to a warmer world."  Id. at 225-226. YET! "Neither biology nor economics can substitute for the deeper ethical question: What kind of world do we desire?" Id. at 227.).