Congressional Republicans celebrated alongside President Trump on Wednesday afternoon at the White House -- just hours after passing a massive tax cut proposal through the House and Senate.
But something else happened on Wednesday that suggests Republicans should slow their roll: A new CNN poll revealed that the party in power in Washington is headed toward a very treacherous 2018 midterm election.
Asked whether they would vote for a generic Democratic candidate or a generic Republican one for Congress next year, 56% chose the Democrat while 38% went with the Republican. (That question is known in polling parlance as the generic ballot.)
18 points! That's the widest gap for either party at this point in a midterm election in more than 20 years of CNN polling. And it's hardly a lone result in the wilderness.
As The New York Times' Nate Cohn noted, here are the generic ballot results from polls conducted in December using live interviewers (as opposed to an automated voice):
- CNN D+18
- Quinnipiac D+15
- Monmouth D+15
- Marist D+13
- POS (R) D+12
- NBC/WSJ D+11
That's a LOT of credible data all saying the same thing: There is a major wind blowing in Republicans' faces right now.
And it's not just poll numbers. Democratic victories in Virginia's governor's race and Alabama's US Senate race suggest a fired-up Democratic base and a far-less-enthusiastic Republican one.
The silver lining for Republicans in all this is that it's December 2017, not October 2018. Things can change. Trump's approval rating -- currently mired in the mid 30s -- could rebound. The tax cut bill, which twice as many people oppose as support right now, could grow more popular as people see its effects over the next year.
All true! And all possible!
But as 2017 draws to a close, it's beyond question that Democrats have the momentum.
The Point: The combination of Trump's unpopularity, historic midterm election trends for the party in power and the energy coursing through the Democratic base all point to a coming wave. A big one.
-- Chris |
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